Will the Phillies Meet the Mets?

The MLB postseason is officially underway. After the Mets beat the Brewers in game one of their best-of-three, history says they’re on track to face the Phillies in the NLDS this weekend.

Should the Phillies be worried to meet the Mets? Or will they step right up and beat the Mets?

Lots to discuss today. Let’s get after it.

In the email today:

• 👀 First Ever Phillies/Mets Postseason Series a Strong Possibility

• 🤔 Eagles Have a Jahan Dotson Problem

• 🥅 Flyers Can Wait with Alexei Kolosov, but Not Too Long

  • 📆 This Day in Philly Sports History

  • 📊 Poll

  • 🔗 Links

  • 📺 Coming Up

The Mets defeated the Brewers in Milwaukee on Tuesday night, 8-4. Winning game one of their best-of three series makes them a prohibitive favorite to emerge from the wild card series as the Phillies' NLDS opponent.

Since the current wild card series format was implemented, teams winning the first game won the series 14 of 16 times. Ten teams have won game one on the road like the Mets, and eight of them won the series. Seven of those eight swept the series.

If historical trends hold, and we see the first postseason series between the Phils and Mets, should Phillies fans feel confident? Here's a look at the 13 games the teams played against each other in the 2024 regular season.

Four-Game Home and Away Series in May

• Phillies 5 - Mets 4. Cristopher Sanchez had a mediocre start while Sean Manaea held the Phils to one run over six innings. But the Phillies' bullpen shut the Mets down late in the game. Bryson Stott hit a home run to lead off a two-run ninth that tied the game, and a Stott sac fly in the tenth proved to be the game winner.

• Phillies 4 - Mets 0. Aaron Nola pitched a complete game shutout, allowing four hits, striking out eight, and walking none.

• Phillies 10 - Mets 5. Ranger Suarez improved to 8-0 after allowing two runs (both unearned) in five innings. Mets starter Joey Lucchesi served up a Bryce Harper home run and didn't make it through the fifth inning.

• Mets 6- Phillies 5. Taijuan Walker didn't make it out of the fourth.

London Series

• Phillies 7 - Mets 2. Manaea struggled against the Phils' lineup this time, allowing six runs and seven hits in 3.2 innings, including home runs from Harper and Whit Merrifield(!). Suarez picked up the win.

• Mets 6 - Phillies 5. Taijuan Walker started against the Mets for the second time, and the Mets won for the second time. Walker actually pitched reasonably well, and the Phillies built a 3-0 lead against Mets starter Jose Quintana. But Gregory Soto and Jose Alvarado were knocked around a bit.

Three-Game Mid-September Series in Philly

• Mets 11 - Phillies 3. One of those games where Nola was cruising, then suddenly imploded. He allowed six runs, all in the fifth inning. Jose Quintana held the Phillies scoreless over seven.

• Phillies 6 - Mets 4. Bryce Harper mashed two home runs, both off of Mets starter Luis Severino.

• Phillies 2 - Mets 1. Cristopher Sanchez allowed one run over seven innings in a 2-1 Phillies win. J.T. Realmuto hit a walk-off single in the ninth.

Four-Game September Series in NYC

• Mets 10 - Phillies 6. Walker made his return as the Phillies' fifth starter. You may recall that it didn't go well. His line: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 2 K.

• Phillies 12 - Mets 2. Cristopher Sanchez pitched well and Alec Bohm went 4/5 with a home run.

• Mets 6 - Phillies 3. Strong outing from Manaea (7 IP, 3 R). Suarez had a solid start, but the Mets tagged Orion Kerkering for three runs in the seventh.

• Mets 2 - Phillies 1. Zack Wheeler pitched deep into the game, but four Mets pitchers combined to shut the Phils ' offense down.

Takeaways

• The Phillies are probably not as good as they looked in May, when they were on pace for 110+ wins.

• The Mets are probably not as good as they looked in September, when they went 17-9 to crash the postseason party.

• Science tells us, however, that September is recent and May is not. It's reasonable to worry that the Mets are hot at the right time.

• On the other hand, Taijuan Walker will not start a game for the Phillies in the postseason. The Phillies won seven of ten games against the Mets when Walker wasn't the starter.

• If both teams play their best (a very big if), the Phillies are the more talented team and would win a five-game series.

Third wide receivers can be amazing resources for NFL offenses. Think Az-Zahir Hakim playing with Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt for the Greatest Show on Turf.

For that matter, look at what Jalen Tolbert is doing for the Dallas Cowboys this season, putatively behind CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks on their depth chart but producing like a starter.

The Eagles came into this season with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith locked into the roles of WR1 and WR2. Their trade for Jahan Dotson looked like a steal when they made it.

It might turn out to be a steal, all right…for the Commanders.

That’s the same Olamide Zaccheaus who played for the Eagles last season. As it stands, parting with a 2025 third-round pick in the deal for Dotson looks calamitous.

As with so many elements of the 2024 Eagles, the question of who is to blame for Dotson’s struggles degenerates quickly into a “is it the chicken or the egg” dilemma. The potential excuses are many:

• Jalen Hurts is off to a (charitably put) uneven start to the season. He has thrown four touchdowns but also four interceptions. He also has five fumbles, three of which were turnovers.

• Last week’s loss at Tampa Bay was nearly a “schedule loss” given the absence of Brown, Smith and Lane Johnson.

• The Dotson trade was announced on August 22, two days before the Eagles’ final preseason game and weeks after the Eagles began training camp. So Dotson didn’t have any opportunity to learn the system or develop any rapport with Hurts before the games counted.

• The third-round pick the Eagles spent on Dotson pales in comparison to the $26 million guaranteed they gave to Saquon Barkley, and it thus figures that Barkley has been the primary focal point of the offense through four weeks. You can’t throw it to Dotson when you handed it to Barkley.

We’d also like to remind you that the Eagles, despite it all, are one Barkley drop against the Falcons from being 3-1. If the Eagles were 3-1, Dotson’s shortcomings wouldn’t rankle so much.

But the Eagles are NOT 3-1. You know who is?

It’s too early to call the Dotson trade a bust. But in the ultimate “win now” league, it’s also getting late early for Dotson to produce.

Another year, another new great goaltending hope for the Flyers. Hopefully you never got too attached to the last one (Carter Hart), because as they say in the movies, “won’t see him no more.” 

From Belarus with love comes the next new thing between the pipes. Following some contractual wrangling and a snit fit from GM Danny Briere, Alexei Kolosov is stateside and made a solid if unspectacular preseason debut on Monday.

The player, through the club’s website, is saying all the right things.

Head coach John Tortorella has probably spent all of his patience with young players in preseason on new starlet Matvei Michkov. So it was unsurprising to hear the coach try to deflate the fan base’s balloon about Kolosov’s immediate future.

Listen. All of that is well and good.

But the Flyers have spent so much fan goodwill in the past four seasons — each of which ended with no playoffs — that any perceived weaknesses in Ersson or Fedotov (or both) will unquestionably lead to calls to put Kolosov in to sink or swim.

Is that a great idea? Ask Hart or Alex Lyon or Anthony Stolarz.

Will it happen anyway? It’s tough to put it past the Flyers. (There’s something you don’t hear often, eh?)

📆 This Day in Philly Sports History

On October 2, 2008, Brett Myers worked a two-out walk against CC Sabathia, leading up to a Shane Victorino grand slam. The Phillies won NLDS game two, 5-2.

📊 Poll

Results from Monday:

🔗 Links

• 📱Former Jaguars employee Amit Patel has sued FanDuel, blaming the sports gambling outfit for the $22 million he lost on the site.

• 👴 Justin Verlander didn’t make the Astros’ Wild Card roster.

• 🐍 The Diamondbacks are sore losers.

• 🎙️Sixers play-by-play announcer Kate Scott has new competition for her own name recognition.

• 💻️ Darius Slay might consider staying off opposing players’ podcasts for a while.

• 📺️ ESPN star Scott Van Pelt threw out the first pitch at the Orioles’ playoff game Tuesday, which the O’s lost.

📺 Coming Up

Games before our next send.

October 2, 2024

• Philadelphia Union at Orlando City SC, 7:30 p.m., (Apple TV+).

Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.

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